O caminho do Fluminense para tentar chegar ao título do Brasileirão
Na terceira colocação, com 48 pontos e a nove da liderança, o Fluminense tem possibilidades remotas de chegar ao quinto título do Brasileirão. Enquanto as chances de classificar para a Libertadores são de 80%, de acordo com o site Infobola, do matemático Tristão Garcia, o Flu tem só 4% de chances ser campeão contra 6% do Inter e 87% do líder Palmeiras.
Entretanto, em um passado não tão distante, o Time de Guerreiros já desafiou a matemática. Faltando 11 rodadas para o fim do Campeonato Brasileiro, exploramos os caminhos do Tricolor, do Colorado e do Alviverde nesta reta de chegada de competição.
Depois de vencer o Fla-Flu no último domigno (18), o Tricolor chegou a dormir de novo na vice-liderança, mas acabou ultrapassado pelo Inter no dia seguinte. A jornada do Flu agora continua na próxima quarta-feira (28) diante do Juventude em casa e se encerra no dia 13/11, fora, contra o RB Bragantino. Além disso, no meio do caminho serão mais quatro jogos no Rio — incluindo o Clássico Vovô contra o Botafogo — e mais cinco longe de seus domínios. Dos três, aliás, o Tricolor é quem vai jogar mais vezes fora de casa, seis jogos. Enquanto o Palmeiras vai jogar cinco partidas e o Inter só vai viajar em quatro oportunidades.
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Isso, no entanto, não chega a ser uma má notícia, porque o Tricolor está entre os visitantes mais indigestos do Brasil na atual temporada. No Brasileirão, por exemplo, o Fluminense tem só a quinta melhor campanha fora de casa. Mas, se contar todo o ano de 2022, são 16 vitórias, seis empates e sete derrotas. O aproveitamento, portanto, sobe para 62%.
Regularidade do Palmeiras é o principal obstáculo para o Fluminense na corrida pelo título do Brasileirão
Com 59,26% de aproveitamento, o Flu de Fernando Diniz protagoniza a sua melhor campanha em Campeonato Brasileiro desde que conquistou o troféu com quatro rodadas de antecedência, há 10 anos. Até então, o melhor desempenho havia sido em 2016, quando a equipe comandada por Levir Culpi chegou a 27ª rodade na quinta posição com 43 pontos.
Contudo, nem mesmo a boa campanha tem permitido ao Tricolor competir com a regularidade do Alviverde. Líder isolado, o time de Abel Ferreira tem a melhor campanha como mandante e como visitante. Fora de casa, a equipe paulista tem 69,2% de aproveitamento enquanto que, em casa, o percentual sobe para 71,4%.
Além disso, o Palmeiras tem o melhor ataque, com 44 gols marcados e a melhor defesa, com apenas 19 sofridos. Em 14 dos 27 jogos, por exemplo, a equipe sequer teve a meta defendida por Weverton vazada. O time não perdeu nem mesmo quando enfrentou o segundo colocado em três rodadas consecutivas. Venceu o Corinthians, empatou com o Flamengo e com o Fluminense.
Para se ter dimensão, com 57 pontos, o Alviverde tem a sétima melhor campanha em 27 jogos desde que o Campeonato Brasileiro por 20 equipes, em 2006.
| Edição | Pontuação | Aproveitamento | Então líder |
| 2019 | 64 | 79,01% | Flamengo |
| 2007 | 60 | 74,07% | São Paulo |
| 2021 | 59 | 72,84% | Atlético-MG |
| 2013 | 59 | 72,84% | Cruzeiro |
| 2012 | 59 | 72,84% | Fluminense |
| 2017 | 58 | 71,60% | Corinthians |
| 2022 | 57 | 70,37% | Palmeiras |
Além disso, neste mesmo só quatro times que lideravam até a 27ª rodada não ficaram com o título. Por outro lado — para dar esperança a torcida tricolor — em duas destas quatro vezes, o Palmeiras era o líder do Brasileirão ao final da 27ª rodada. Em 2008, o Alviverde acabou perdendo o título para o rival São Paulo enquanto que, em 2009, o troféu ficou com o Flamengo.
Próximos jogos do Fluminense
Embora jogue mais fora de casa, o Flu também vai ter mais jogos (seis no total) contra as equipes da metade de baixo da tabela. Além de receber o Juventude no Maracanã, o Tricolor encara, por exemplo, o Atlético-GO e o Avaí — hoje no Z4.
Além disso, vai enfrentar o São Paulo depois da final da Copa Sul Americana. Ou seja, em caso de título, o time do Morumbi já vai estar classificado para a Libertadores.
Em contrapartida, não tem mais confrontos diretos nem com o Palmeiras, nem com o Inter. O Time de Guerreiros já empatou os dois com o Alviverde e perdeu tanto no Rio quanto em Porto Alegre para o Colorado.
- Juventude (casa)
- Atlético-MG (fora)
- Atlético-GO (fora)
- América-MG (casa)
- Avaí (fora)
- Botafogo (casa)
- Corinthians (fora)
- Ceará (fora)
- São Paulo (casa)
- Goiás (casa)
- RB Bragantino (fora)
Para chegar ao título, o Fluminense vai ter de torcer para pelo menos três tropeços do Palmeiras e pelo menos um tropeço do Inter. O que nos leva a:
Próximos jogos do Palmeiras
Assim como o Fluminense, o Alviverde também tem cinco jogos contra times que atualmente estão na metade de cima da tabela, sendo dois hoje no G6. E, já na próxima rodada, o Palmeiras enfrenta o Atlético-MG, sétimo colocado, no Mineirão. Além disso, o time de Abel Ferreira ainda vai ter um clássico contra o São Paulo e um confronto direto contra o Internacional na última rodada.
- Atlético-MG (fora)
- Botafogo (fora)
- Coritiba (casa)
- Atlético-GO (fora)
- São Paulo (casa)
- Avaí (casa)
- Athletico Paranaense (fora)
- Fortaleza (casa)
- Cuiabá (fora)
- América-MG (casa)
- Internacional (fora)
Próximos jogos do Inter
Por fim, o Colorado, dono da terceira melhor campanha em casa — atrás só de Palmeiras e Fluminense — ainda vai disputar mais seis jogos no Beira-Rio. Em contrapartida, a equipe de Mano Menezes vai disputar seis jogos contra times da metade de cima da tabela, incluindo o confronto contra o Palmeiras na 38ª rodada.
- RB Bragantino (casa)
- Santos (casa)
- Flamengo (fora)
- Goiás (casa)
- Botafogo (fora)
- Coritiba (fora)
- Ceará (casa)
- América-MG (fora)
- Athletico Paranaense (casa)
- São Paulo (fora)
- Palmeiras (casa)
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