“És Mi Obsesión” – Veja TODOS os cálculos e cenários que podem levar o Flu para a Libertadores de 2021 – Por João Gurgel
A tradicional música cantada pelas barras bravas argentinas “La Copa Libertadores És mi Obsesión” nunca esteve tão presente dentro do Fluminense. Hoje com 50 pontos conquistados, o tricolor está a um ponto de voltar ao G-6 e está cinco pontos na frente dos seus concorrentes (Santos, Ceará e Corinthians), tendo uma boa margem de diferença. O Flu não disputa uma edição de Libertadores desde 2013. E esse ano, isso se tornou uma verdadeira obsessão do torcedor tricolor: Ver o clube de volta na principal competição internacional das Américas.
Faltando seis rodadas para o fim do Brasileirão, as contas para essa classificação acontecer, precisam ser feitas. Afinal, a matemática está muito dentro do futebol. Um simples erro de cálculo pode trazer mudanças significativas na tabela final.
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Dito isso, fiz e pensei todos os cenários possíveis que podem levar o Flu para a próxima edição da Copa Libertadores. Analisei os cenários envolvendo as disputas da Copa do Brasil e também, da edição de 2020 da competição internacional, que vai ser decidida nessa semana.
COPA LIBERTADORES
Palmeiras e Santos se enfrentam nesse final de semana, 30/01/ no Maracanã em final com jogo único. Vamos aos cenários:
É nessa final que a situação pode complicar um pouco para o lado do Fluminense, caso o Santos levante a taça. Isso porque o Peixe está atrás do Flu na tabela, com 45 pontos, e atrás também de Ceará e Corinthians, porém todos com a mesma pontuação.
Se o Santos conquistar a Libertadores, é muito improvável que o time continue com 100% do foco no Brasileirão e com isso, provavelmente terminando abaixo do tricolor na tabela, o provável G-8 não existirá.
Agora, caso o Palmeiras conquiste a taça, aí é o cenário que o Fluminense quer. Pois com isso, independente do campeão da Copa do Brasil (Grêmio e Palmeiras), caso ambos fiquem entre os seis primeiros na tabela, abrirá o G-8 (G-7 no caso pois a Libertadores acaba antes da Copa do Brasil). Com o time da Vila Belmiro sem o título, o peixe pode se entregar ao máximo nessas rodadas finais do Brasileirão e beliscar também uma vaga na pré-libertadores. Isso, claro, se a moral e a cabeça dos jogadores estiverem altas e concentradas para isso.
COPA DO BRASIL
Palmeiras e Grêmio decidem a final da competição em dois jogos. As partidas serão nos dias 11 e 17 de fevereiro apenas. Ou seja, faltando duas rodadas apenas para o fim do Brasileirão, saberemos quem será o campeão e qual será a colocação de ambos os times para vermos se o G-8 abrirá. Ao que tudo indica, sim!. Apesar de na última rodada, ambos os times foram derrotados por Ceará e Internacional, os dois ainda “brigam” na parte de cima da tabela.
Mas pelo título, ficou um pouco mais distante. Com ambas as equipes com 51 pontos, o Internacional é o líder da competição com 62, estando 11 pontos na frente dos dois clubes. Nas últimas rodadas, os times perderam pontos importantes e esfriaram a briga.
Vamos aos cenários:
Caso o Grêmio ganhe a Copa do Brasil: Hoje, por ele estar na sexta posição, abrirá mais uma vaga no Brasileirão. Mas não é tão garantido de que se o Imortal conquiste o título, continue se dedicando 100% à competição nacional.
Caso o Palmeiras levante a taça: Primeiramente, se ele ganhar a Libertadores e a Copa do Brasil, a vaga NÃO vai para o segundo colocado da CDB. A vaga vai para o Brasileirão. Ou seja, também nesse caso, teremos um G-8 independente de quem seja o campeão (isso contando que os times vão terminar o campeonato entre as 6 primeiras posições da tabela).
Melhor dos mundos para o Flu: Como o campeonato vai estar na reta final, não tem muito como saber como vão estar esses times daqui há 25 dias. Entretanto, provavelmente, até lá, a tendência é que eles continuem brigando na parte de cima da tabela (pensando que o Palmeiras será campeão da Libertadores). O que o Flu pode tirar vantagem é ambas as equipes ainda acreditarem em conquistar o título do Brasileirão. Nesse campeonato maluco, tudo é possível. Não é fácil, mas não é improvável.
Até porque, conhecendo o Grêmio de Renato Gaúcho, eles não vão abdicar do Brasileirão. Vão fazer os pontos necessários para ficarem entre os seis primeiros colocados. Se tivessem ganhado do rival Internacional no domingo (24) e vão enfrentar o Flamengo agora, em rodada atrasada, em caso de duas vitórias, o imortal chegaria aos 57 pontos e ficaria há um ponto atrás do São Paulo, segundo colocado.
Em ambos esses cenários, estamos contando que Grêmio e Palmeiras vão terminar o Brasileirão na frente do Fluminense na tabela de classificação. Se isso não ocorrer, provavelmente o Flu terminará dentro do G-6, com mais pontos do que os dois, e com a vaga na pré-libertadores. Ou, o Flu fica atrás de equipes como Santos e Corinthians e fica fora da competição.
O FLU CONSEGUE IR PARA A FASE DE GRUPOS DIRETO?
Consegue. Mas para isso, vai precisar de uma combinação de resultados. Vamos lá: As vagas para a fase de grupos são dadas aos quatro primeiros colocados do Brasileirão. Hoje, temos Atlético-MG (54), Flamengo (55), São Paulo (58) e Internacional (62).
Palmeiras e Grêmio, como já falado, vão disputar duas finais, Copa do Brasil e Libertadores. Para o tricolor carioca ir para uma possível fase de grupos, o tricolor precisaria que um desses times (ou os dois) terminassem no fim do Brasileirão, da quarta colocação em diante. Isso porque, caso o Flu termine até na sexta posição, se Palmeiras e Grêmio fiquem na 4ª ou 5ª posição (ou vice-versa), a vaga direta ficará com o sexto colocado.
Só que nesse cenário acima, um dos 4 clubes da ponta (Atlético-MG, Flamengo, São Paulo e Inter) teriam que cair muito de produção e ficar ATRÁS DE FLU, GRÊMIO E PALMEIRAS, na sétima posição. Se o Palmeiras ganhar as duas decisões de copa, com isso, o Flu teria que terminar na quinta posição e torcer para o clube paulista ficar entre os quatro primeiros, pois com isso, uma vaga para a fase de grupos direto também se abriria. Essa situação também se aplica caso o Grêmio conquiste a Copa do Brasil e termine na quarta colocação e o Flu termine em quinto.
Só que hoje, é muito difícil que os quatro clubes da parte de cima da tabela caiam drasticamente de produção a ponto de ficarem abaixo do Fluminense na tabela final. Pode acontecer? Pode! Mas é difícil.
Ou seja: Não adianta o Flu terminar na quinta posição mas com Grêmio e Palmeiras (ou só o Palmeiras) atrás do tricolor na tabela. Óbvio que terminar em quinto daria uma premiação maior do Brasileirão (o que hoje importaria bastante aos cofres tricolores). Mas continuaria indo para a Pré-Libertadores.
RODADAS FINAIS
Vamos colocar aqui a lista dos jogos restantes dos times que estão na disputa pelas vagas na Libertadores. Ou seja, do Internacional ao Corinthians.
JOGOS RESTANTES INTER
Internacional x Bragantino
Athletico-PR x Internacional
Internacional x Sport
Vasco x Internacional
Flamengo x Internacional
Internacional x Corinthians
JOGOS RESTANTES SÃO PAULO
Atlético-GO X São Paulo
São Paulo x Palmeiras
São Paulo x Ceará
Grêmio x São Paulo
Botafogo x São Paulo
São Paulo x Flamengo
JOGOS RESTANTES FLAMENGO
Grêmio x Flamengo*
Sport x Flamengo
Flamengo x Vasco
Bragantino x Flamengo
Flamengo x Corinthians
Flamengo x Internacional
São Paulo x Flamengo
JOGOS RESTANTES ATLÉTICO-MG
Atlético-MG x Santos*
Atlético-MG x Fortaleza
Goiás x Atlético-MG
Fluminense x Atlético-MG
Atlético-MG x Bahia
Sport x Atlético-MG
Atlético-MG x Palmeiras
JOGOS RESTANTES GRÊMIO
Grêmio x Flamengo*
Coritiba x Grêmio
Grêmio x Santos
Botafogo x Grêmio
Grêmio x São Paulo
Grêmio x Athletico-PR
Bragantino x Grêmio
JOGOS RESTANTES PALMEIRAS
Palmeiras x Vasco*
Palmeiras x Botafogo
São Paulo x Palmeiras
Coritiba x Palmeiras
Palmeiras x Fortaleza
Palmeiras x Atlético-GO
Atlético-MG x Palmeiras
JOGOS RESTANTES FLUMINENSE
Fluminense x Goiás
Bahia x Fluminense
Fluminense x Atlético(MG)
Ceará x Fluminense
Santos x Fluminense
Fluminense x Fortaleza
JOGOS RESTANTES SANTOS
Atlético0MG x Santos*
Grêmio x Santos
Atlético-GO x Santos
Santos x Coritiba
Santos x Corinthians
Santos x Fluminense
Bahia x Santos
JOGOS RESTANTES CORINTHIANS
Corinthians x Bragantino (jogo de hoje, fim da rodada)
Bahia x Corinthians*
Corinthians x Ceará
Corinthians x Athletico-PR
Flamengo x Corinthians
Santos x Corinthians
Corinthians x Vasco
Internacional x Corinthians
*Rodada atrasada
Como podemos observar, alguns times ainda tem jogos devendo por rodadas atrasadas, que serão pagas no meio dessa semana. Após isso, faltará seis partidas para cada time. Dentre todos os jogos restantes, vimos que a tabela do Fluminense, realmente é uma das mais tranquilas, com poucos confrontos contra o pelotão de cima, bem diferente dos outros times, com duelos mais pesados.
A tabela do Palmeiras também é tranquila. Por isso, reforço a ideia de que o clube pode vir a fazer uma arrancada e não desistir do Brasileirão.
É claro que o Flu precisa fazer a sua parte, que é ganhar os jogos QUE PRECISA ganhar. Nesses seis jogos, acho até difícil, pelo futebol que vem jogando, conseguir ficar sem derrotas. Mas tem jogos e jogos. Tem partidas que não pode perder! A maioria dos matemáticos, que fazem as projeções do Brasileirão, apontam que o Flu terminará na 7ª posição da tabela, o que hoje, daria a vaga na Pré-Libertadores de 2021.
Com essas projeções em mente, o Flu, fazendo os cálculos a cada rodada, pode saber quantos pontos pode precisar para poder se garantir, não dependo de tropeços de outros clubes para isso.
No fim, “La Copa Libertadores És Mi Obsesión!”
ST
João Eduardo Gurgel
Pingback: Palmeiras campeão da Libertadores - Entenda como isso afeta a situação do Flu no Brasileirão - Saudações Tricolores
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