24/04/2024
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O caminho do Fluminense para tentar chegar ao título do Brasileirão

Lucas Meireles 294 Comentários
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Na terceira colocação, com 48 pontos e a nove da liderança, o Fluminense tem possibilidades remotas de chegar ao quinto título do Brasileirão. Enquanto as chances de classificar para a Libertadores são de 80%, de acordo com o site Infobola, do matemático Tristão Garcia, o Flu tem só 4% de chances ser campeão contra 6% do Inter e 87% do líder Palmeiras.

Entretanto, em um passado não tão distante, o Time de Guerreiros já desafiou a matemática. Faltando 11 rodadas para o fim do Campeonato Brasileiro, exploramos os caminhos do Tricolor, do Colorado e do Alviverde nesta reta de chegada de competição.

Depois de vencer o Fla-Flu no último domigno (18), o Tricolor chegou a dormir de novo na vice-liderança, mas acabou ultrapassado pelo Inter no dia seguinte. A jornada do Flu agora continua na próxima quarta-feira (28) diante do Juventude em casa e se encerra no dia 13/11, fora, contra o RB Bragantino. Além disso, no meio do caminho serão mais quatro jogos no Rio — incluindo o Clássico Vovô contra o Botafogo — e mais cinco longe de seus domínios. Dos três, aliás, o Tricolor é quem vai jogar mais vezes fora de casa, seis jogos. Enquanto o Palmeiras vai jogar cinco partidas e o Inter só vai viajar em quatro oportunidades.

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Fluminense de Diniz, Palmeiras de Abel Ferreira e Inter de Mano Menezes são os únicos times com mais de 1% de chance de conquistar o título do Brasileirão
Fluminense de Diniz, Palmeiras de Abel e Inter de Mano são os times com chances de conquistar o título do Brasileirão (Arte: Lucas Meireles)

Isso, no entanto, não chega a ser uma má notícia, porque o Tricolor está entre os visitantes mais indigestos do Brasil na atual temporada. No Brasileirão, por exemplo, o Fluminense tem só a quinta melhor campanha fora de casa. Mas, se contar todo o ano de 2022, são 16 vitórias, seis empates e sete derrotas. O aproveitamento, portanto, sobe para 62%.

Regularidade do Palmeiras é o principal obstáculo para o Fluminense na corrida pelo título do Brasileirão

Com 59,26% de aproveitamento, o Flu de Fernando Diniz protagoniza a sua melhor campanha em Campeonato Brasileiro desde que conquistou o troféu com quatro rodadas de antecedência, há 10 anos. Até então, o melhor desempenho havia sido em 2016, quando a equipe comandada por Levir Culpi chegou a 27ª rodade na quinta posição com 43 pontos.

Aproveitamento (e classificação) do Fluminense ao longo da última década

Contudo, nem mesmo a boa campanha tem permitido ao Tricolor competir com a regularidade do Alviverde. Líder isolado, o time de Abel Ferreira tem a melhor campanha como mandante e como visitante. Fora de casa, a equipe paulista tem 69,2% de aproveitamento enquanto que, em casa, o percentual sobe para 71,4%.

Além disso, o Palmeiras tem o melhor ataque, com 44 gols marcados e a melhor defesa, com apenas 19 sofridos. Em 14 dos 27 jogos, por exemplo, a equipe sequer teve a meta defendida por Weverton vazada. O time não perdeu nem mesmo quando enfrentou o segundo colocado em três rodadas consecutivas. Venceu o Corinthians, empatou com o Flamengo e com o Fluminense.

Para se ter dimensão, com 57 pontos, o Alviverde tem a sétima melhor campanha em 27 jogos desde que o Campeonato Brasileiro por 20 equipes, em 2006.

Edição Pontuação  Aproveitamento Então líder
2019 64 79,01% Flamengo
2007 60 74,07% São Paulo
2021 59 72,84% Atlético-MG
2013 59 72,84% Cruzeiro
2012 59 72,84% Fluminense
2017 58 71,60% Corinthians
2022 57 70,37% Palmeiras

Além disso, neste mesmo só quatro times que lideravam até a 27ª rodada não ficaram com o título. Por outro lado — para dar esperança a torcida tricolor — em duas destas quatro vezes, o Palmeiras era o líder do Brasileirão ao final da 27ª rodada. Em 2008, o Alviverde acabou perdendo o título para o rival São Paulo enquanto que, em 2009, o troféu ficou com o Flamengo.

Próximos jogos do Fluminense

Embora jogue mais fora de casa, o Flu também vai ter mais jogos (seis no total) contra as equipes da metade de baixo da tabela. Além de receber o Juventude no Maracanã, o Tricolor encara, por exemplo, o Atlético-GO e o Avaí — hoje no Z4.

Além disso, vai enfrentar o São Paulo depois da final da Copa Sul Americana. Ou seja, em caso de título, o time do Morumbi já vai estar classificado para a Libertadores.

Em contrapartida, não tem mais confrontos diretos nem com o Palmeiras, nem com o Inter. O Time de Guerreiros já empatou os dois com o Alviverde e perdeu tanto no Rio quanto em Porto Alegre para o Colorado.

  • Juventude (casa)
  • Atlético-MG (fora)
  • Atlético-GO (fora)
  • América-MG (casa)
  • Avaí (fora)
  • Botafogo (casa)
  • Corinthians (fora)
  • Ceará (fora)
  • São Paulo (casa)
  • Goiás (casa)
  • RB Bragantino (fora)

Para chegar ao título, o Fluminense vai ter de torcer para pelo menos três tropeços do Palmeiras e pelo menos um tropeço do Inter. O que nos leva a:

Próximos jogos do Palmeiras

Assim como o Fluminense, o Alviverde também tem cinco jogos contra times que atualmente estão na metade de cima da tabela, sendo dois hoje no G6. E, já na próxima rodada, o Palmeiras enfrenta o Atlético-MG, sétimo colocado, no Mineirão. Além disso, o time de Abel Ferreira ainda vai ter um clássico contra o São Paulo e um confronto direto contra o Internacional na última rodada.

  • Atlético-MG (fora)
  • Botafogo (fora)
  • Coritiba (casa)
  • Atlético-GO (fora)
  • São Paulo (casa)
  • Avaí (casa)
  • Athletico Paranaense (fora)
  • Fortaleza (casa)
  • Cuiabá (fora)
  • América-MG (casa)
  • Internacional (fora)

Próximos jogos do Inter

Por fim, o Colorado, dono da terceira melhor campanha em casa — atrás só de Palmeiras e Fluminense — ainda vai disputar mais seis jogos no Beira-Rio. Em contrapartida, a equipe de Mano Menezes vai disputar seis jogos contra times da metade de cima da tabela, incluindo o confronto contra o Palmeiras na 38ª rodada.

  • RB Bragantino (casa)
  • Santos (casa)
  • Flamengo (fora)
  • Goiás (casa)
  • Botafogo (fora)
  • Coritiba (fora)
  • Ceará (casa)
  • América-MG (fora)
  • Athletico Paranaense (casa)
  • São Paulo (fora)
  • Palmeiras (casa)

ST

 


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Lucas Meireles

Jornalista formado pela UFRRJ, apaixonado por esportes e pelas boas histórias.

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  • Pingback: Vou Ver O Flu Jogar — Tudo sobre Fluminense x Juventude pela 28ª rodada do Brasileirão

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